San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- River RyanPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8T. Hernández singled to center, E. Hernández scored, Freeman to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 7Fitzgerald homered to left center (394 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6T. Hernández singled to center, Freeman scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4T. Hernández homered to left (411 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Chapman walked, Wade Jr. scored, Bailey to third on passed ball by Smith.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 41–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML SF +105 / LAD -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: River Ryan (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +82 Elo | LAD 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.01st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 3020–29 | Road vs home | 31–184th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–51 | 48–52 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–31 | 44–44 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 53–45–1 | 51–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–13 LAD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.