Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Gavin LuxBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yoshida grounded into fielder's choice to second, Duran scored, Wong out at second, Devers to third.6–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 9Duran doubled to left, Rafaela scored and Smith scored.5–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 8Heyward homered to right (369 feet), Biggio scored.3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–9
- 8Biggio singled to center, Lux scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 6Rafaela singled to left, Wong scored, Yoshida to second.3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Ohtani homered to center (473 feet).2–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5Barnes homered to left center (399 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Lux homered to left center (379 feet).2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3T. Hernández homered to right (372 feet).2–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 1Lux doubled to left, Pages scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML BOS -105 / LAD -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +49 Elo | LAD 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.93rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3029–19 | Road vs home | 30–185th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–53 | 47–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–35 | 43–44 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 45–51–2 | 50–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–4 LAD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.