Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Smith singled to left, E. Hernández scored, Ohtani to second, Taylor to third.6–7
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 26–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 10E. Hernández singled to center, Pages scored, E. Hernández out stretching at second.6–6
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 36–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 26–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 16–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 10Pages doubled to left, Freeman scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 10O'Neill homered to center (406 feet), Duran scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 9E. Hernández homered to left center (415 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7O'Neill homered to left (399 feet), Duran scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pages hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeman scored, T. Hernández to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6T. Hernández singled to right, Ohtani scored on error, T. Hernández safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Abreu, Freeman safe at third on error.2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Duran doubled to right, Refsnyder scored on error and Rafaela scored, Duran safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Rojas.2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 54%
- ML BOS +110 / LAD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −30 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 1.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +36 Elo | LAD 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3029–18 | Road vs home | 29–186th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–53 | 47–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–35 | 43–43 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 44–51–2 | 49–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–3 LAD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.