Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4
- Brent HoneywellPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pérez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Malloy scored on throwing error by pitcher Ramírez, Vilade to second.3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Malloy singled to center, McKinstry scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6McKinstry grounded into fielder's choice to second, Greene scored, Kelly out at second.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Urshela hit sacrifice fly to center, Keith scored, Vierling to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Pages scored, Rojas caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop to first.2–0
- 1Pages scored, Rojas caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop to first.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Pages singled to center, T. Hernández scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1T. Hernández doubled to left, Smith scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 56%
- ML LAD -140 / DET +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +13 | LAD: Brent Honeywell (no track record yet) · DET: Beau Brieske: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +21 Elo | LAD 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 5th of 3027–21 | Road vs home | 23–2420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–50 | 46–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 42–42 | 13–30 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 33–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–46–1 | 53–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.