Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rojas singled to left, Pages scored, Rojas out stretching at second.3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Stott reached on infield single to second, Turner scored, Bohm to third.2–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 32–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Turner reached on infield single to shortstop, Merrifield scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Ohtani singled to center, E. Hernández scored, Barnes to second.2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to second, T. Hernández scored, Pages out at second.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Merrifield grounded out to third, Marsh scored, Sosa to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Schwarber homered to left center (383 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML LAD +115 / PHI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- LAD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +27 Elo | PHI 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–18 | Road vs home | 34–132nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–48 | 48–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–42 | 38–34 |
| Underdog | 2–6 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 48–43–1 | 41–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–3 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.