Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dallas KeuchelPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mitchell doubled to left, Yelich scored, Adames to third.9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Yelich doubled to center, Haase scored.8–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 8Perkins singled to left, Adames scored and Yelich scored, Mitchell to second.7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Perkins homered to left (386 feet).5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Taylor homered to left center (403 feet), Rojas scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Haase homered to right center (374 feet), Capra scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Yelich homered to center (418 feet), Chourio scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML MIL +150 / LAD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.2%, market 61.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -162
- MIL +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −8 | MIL: Dallas Keuchel: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Justin Wrobleski (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +29 Elo | LAD 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 7th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 10th of 3025–25 | Road vs home | 28–178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–39 | 44–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–25 | 42–41 |
| Underdog | 28–14 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 49–40 | 46–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–7 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.