Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andruw MonasterioBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Jake CaveBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Cave homered to center (430 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Chourio doubled to center, Hoskins scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Monasterio singled to center, Frelick scored and Yelich scored, Monasterio to second, Chourio to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Blackmon doubled to right, Hilliard scored and Toglia scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1McMahon hit a ground rule double, Blackmon scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -135 / COL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +104 Elo | MIL 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3025–22 | Road vs home | 17–2427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–36 | 39–44 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–24 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 28–12 | 38–38 |
| Overs–unders | 48–38 | 46–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–5 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.