Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Cave singled to center, Schunk scored, Jones to second, Doyle to third.7–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–8
- 8Doyle homered to right (382 feet).7–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 8Haase singled to left, Frelick scored, Mitchell to third.7–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 8Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to center, Adames scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Adames singled to center, Yelich scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 6Jones doubled to center, Doyle scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 5Rodgers singled to right, McMahon scored, Díaz thrown out at second.4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5McMahon grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cave scored, Blackmon out at second.4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Contreras homered to right (389 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Perkins singled to center, Chourio scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Chourio singled to left, Contreras scored and Yelich scored, Adames to second.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Blackmon homered to center (431 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -145 / COL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 6.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −8 | MIL: Rob Zastryzny: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +110 Elo | MIL 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 10th of 3023–21 | Road vs home | 16–2227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–35 | 38–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–23 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 27–12 | 37–37 |
| Overs–unders | 47–36 | 45–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–4 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.