Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Dallas KeuchelPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Monasterio singled to center, Adames scored, Hoskins to third.5–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 4Chourio hits inside-the-park homer to center (264 feet).5–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Grossman singled to center, Wendzel scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Heim homered to left center (411 feet).4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Lowe homered to left center (392 feet), Langford scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Bauers homered to center (444 feet), Chourio scored, Yelich scored and Adames scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Lowe singled to left, García scored, Langford to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -120 / MIL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 46.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −6 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Dallas Keuchel: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +27 Elo | MIL 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3017–23 | Road vs home | 24–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–44 | 45–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–27 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 17–17 | 26–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–48–1 | 44–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 0–5 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.