Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hoskins singled to center, Yelich scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Ortiz homered to left (370 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Chourio singled to right, Contreras scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Smith singled to center, Seager scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 50%
- ML TEX -110 / MIL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -100
- TEX -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.8 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −5 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Hoby Milner (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +43 Elo | MIL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 23–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–43 | 44–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–27 | 18–22 |
| Underdog | 17–16 | 26–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–47–1 | 44–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 0–4 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.