Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cronenworth homered to right (401 feet).6–7
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 9Hoskins doubled to left, Bauers scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 9Yelich scored on Estrada wild pitch, Bauers to second on wild pitch by Estrada.5–6
- 9Yelich scored on Estrada wild pitch, Bauers to second on wild pitch by Estrada.5–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 8Turang singled to left, Ortiz scored, Perkins to second.4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Profar doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to left center (446 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 5Adames homered to center (411 feet), Yelich scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 1Merrill homered to right (355 feet).1–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 51%
- ML MIL -105 / SD -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- SD: Elo 46.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −16 | MIL: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +22 Elo | MIL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 18–2019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–32 | 40–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–21 | 18–28 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 39–34 | 39–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–3 SD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.