San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castellanos hit a ground rule double, Bohm scored, Stott to third.3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Stott singled to left, Harper scored, Bohm to second.3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Schwarber homered to right (398 feet).3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Profar singled to right, Wade scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Campusano homered to center (408 feet), D. Peralta scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Marsh singled to center, Castellanos scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML SD +140 / PHI -170
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.2%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -151
- SD +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +65 Elo | PHI 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 28–91st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–38 | 39–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 32–26 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 39–36–1 | 32–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–9 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.