San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harper homered to right (381 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Higashioka tripled to right, Azocar scored, Machado scored and Kim scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Arraez singled to right, Merrill scored, Wade to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Harper homered to left center (392 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Merrill homered to right center (401 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML SD +160 / PHI -195
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.5%, market 63.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -172
- SD +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +12 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +74 Elo | PHI 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 29–91st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–38 | 39–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 32–27 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 39–37–1 | 32–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–10 PHI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.