Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado hit sacrifice fly to center, Profar scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 7Bauers singled to center, Chourio scored, Yelich thrown out at third.6–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Arraez singled to right, Kim scored, Sullivan to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 2Black singled to center, Turang scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Turang tripled to right, Perkins scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Perkins singled to left, Ortiz scored and Frelick scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Frelick singled to left, Adames scored, Ortiz to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML MIL +115 / SD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- SD: Elo 50.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +6 Elo | SD 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 21–2017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–34 | 42–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 19–29 |
| Underdog | 25–12 | 22–10 |
| Overs–unders | 42–34 | 42–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–6 SD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.