Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turang homered to left (345 feet), Hoskins scored, Ortiz scored and Bauers scored.4–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 10–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 7Higashioka homered to left (413 feet), Kim scored.0–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Kim homered to left center (374 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Merrill homered to center (440 feet), Solano scored and Cronenworth scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -120 / SD +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 50.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | MIL: Carlos Rodriguez: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +4 Elo | MIL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 20–2016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–33 | 41–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–21 | 19–29 |
| Underdog | 25–12 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 41–34 | 41–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–5 SD in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.