Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting5-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado singled to center, Cronenworth scored.5–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–8
- 7Kim grounded into fielder's choice to second, Machado scored on fielding error by second baseman Turang, Solano to second, Merrill to third.5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 7Solano walked, Cronenworth scored, Merrill to second, Machado to third.5–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 45–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 7Cronenworth singled to left, Azocar scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Frelick grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Yelich scored on throwing error by shortstop Kim, Adames out at second.5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Solano singled to center, Machado scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Cronenworth homered to right (376 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Arraez homered to right (353 feet), Higashioka scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 58%
- ML MIL +130 / SD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- SD: Elo 48.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -138
- MIL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +9 Elo | MIL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 19–2017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–32 | 40–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–21 | 18–29 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 40–34 | 40–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–4 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.