Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Monasterio singled to center, Perkins scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Hoskins homered to left (399 feet), Contreras scored, Yelich scored and Adames scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6García homered to right center (390 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Chourio scored on Lorenzen wild pitch, Perkins to third on wild pitch by Lorenzen.2–1
- 5Chourio scored on Lorenzen wild pitch, Perkins to third on wild pitch by Lorenzen.2–1
- 5Seager singled to left, Taveras scored, Semien to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Semien singled to left, Heim scored, Taveras to second.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 61%
- ML TEX +150 / MIL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -159
- TEX +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +53 Elo | MIL 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 22–125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–42 | 43–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–27 | 17–22 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 26–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–47–1 | 43–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 0–3 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.