Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Toglia homered to left (381 feet).2–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Rodgers singled to right, Doyle scored, McMahon to third.1–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 1McCormick singled to center, Diaz scored and Meyers scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Meyers singled to right, Alvarez scored, Diaz to second.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Diaz singled to center, Bregman scored, Alvarez to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Bregman singled to center, Altuve scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 70%
- ML COL +225 / HOU -275
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.8%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -238
- COL +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 5.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −1 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +130 Elo | HOU 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–27 | Road vs home | 22–1914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–38 | 35–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 24–33 |
| Underdog | 36–33 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 43–32 | 29–43–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–5 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.