Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9McMahon walked, Cave scored, Tovar to second, Doyle to third.7–8
- 9Pitch 7 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 47–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 37–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 27–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 17–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–7
- 9Doyle singled to left, Goodman scored, Cave to second.7–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 8McMahon homered to left (367 feet).7–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 8L. García Jr. homered to center (438 feet), Meneses scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 7Goodman homered to left (447 feet).5–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 7Thomas singled to center, Young scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Abrams singled to right, Millas scored, Young to third.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 51%
- ML WSH -105 / COL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- COL: Elo 44.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +14 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +38 Elo | WSH 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 9th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 15–2127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–29 | 36–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 39–25 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders | 33–41–1 | 42–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–3 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.