Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Jesse WinkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker homered to left (413 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 6Winker homered to center (404 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Newman singled to right, McCarthy scored, Alexander to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Grichuk doubled to left, Barnhart scored and Newman scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Barnhart singled to left, McCarthy scored, Newman to second.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Thomas homered to left center (411 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML ARI +125 / WSH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -133
- ARI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +8 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +24 Elo | WSH 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 3017–20 | Road vs home | 17–1819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–38 | 45–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders | 37–36–1 | 32–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–2 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.