Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Moreno hit sacrifice fly to left, Gurriel Jr. scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Marte hit sacrifice fly to left, Carroll scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Carroll tripled to center, Perdomo scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Marte homered to right center (414 feet), Carroll scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 54%
- ML ARI +110 / WSH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +17 Elo | WSH 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 16–1719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–37 | 44–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–20 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 37–34–1 | 32–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–1 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.