Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Nationals- Jesse WinkerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vargas singled to right, Ruiz scored, Vargas to second, Young to third.1–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Winker homered to center (399 feet), Thomas scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Moreno walked, Walker scored, Suárez to second, Grichuk to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 41–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML ARI -175 / WSH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.3%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -159
- WSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −22 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +23 Elo | ARI 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 15th of 3017–19 | Road vs home | 16–1821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 36–37 | 44–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–20 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 37–35–1 | 32–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–1 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.