Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 6Thomas tripled to left, Abrams scored.11–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–5
- 6Abrams doubled to left, Young scored.10–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–5
- 5Bouchard hit sacrifice fly to center, Toglia scored.9–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 19–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–4
- 4Goodman homered to left (376 feet), Bouchard scored.9–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 29–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 4Jones homered to right (425 feet).9–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 29–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 4Rosario hit sacrifice fly to center, Thomas scored.9–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 4Thomas doubled to left, Abrams scored and Young scored.8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 4Millas homered to center (428 feet).6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Tovar homered to left center (424 feet).5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3L. García Jr. homered to right (393 feet), Rosario scored and Meneses scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Rosario doubled to right, Thomas scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML WSH -125 / COL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- COL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.9 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −5 | WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +50 Elo | WSH 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 10th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 15–2027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–29 | 36–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 39–25 | 35–32 |
| Overs–unders | 32–41–1 | 41–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.