Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Meneses singled to center, Thomas scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 9Thomas doubled to right, Abrams scored.1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Toglia homered to right (462 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML WSH -135 / COL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 57.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −9 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +54 Elo | WSH 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 16–2127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–29 | 36–38 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 40–25 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders | 34–41–1 | 43–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–4 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.