Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Happ homered to right center (394 feet), Suzuki scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 4Frelick grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Chourio scored, Hoskins out at second.3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Happ scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Contreras singled to center, Monasterio scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Turang reached on bunt single to pitcher, Frelick scored, Monasterio to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Busch homered to center (413 feet), Hoerner scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML CHC +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 3.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +75 Elo | MIL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 26th of 3016–27 | Road vs home | 26–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–42 | 47–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 20–22 |
| Underdog | 31–16 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 36–46–1 | 45–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–12 MIL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.