Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Randy RodriguezPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chapman singled to left, Ramos scored and Bailey scored, Chapman to second.1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Soler hit sacrifice fly to center, Wisely scored, Bailey to second, Ramos to third.1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Busch singled to right, Hoerner scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Villar hit sacrifice fly to left, Chapman scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Conforto singled to right, Soler scored, Chapman to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML CHC +105 / SF -125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- SF: Elo 53.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | 0 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 1.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Randy Rodriguez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SF +25 Elo | SF 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3015–24 | Road vs home | 21–1712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–40 | 39–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 29–14 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 35–43–1 | 44–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–3 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.