New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bellinger reached on infield single to first, Nido scored on throwing error by first baseman Alonso, Bellinger to second, Busch safe at third on error.1–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 6Nido doubled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 5Alvarez homered to center (433 feet).1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Morel homered to center (446 feet).0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 1Crow-Armstrong tripled to right, Swanson scored.0–5
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–4
- 1Swanson doubled to left, Morel scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Morel singled to center, Suzuki scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Happ grounded out to shortstop, Bellinger scored, Suzuki to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Suzuki singled to left, Busch scored, Bellinger to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / CHC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.4 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +14 Elo | CHC 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 21–1711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–42 | 37–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–35 | 34–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–5 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.