New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-3
- Shota ImanagaPitching3.0 IP, 10 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Iglesias singled to right, Marte scored and Martinez scored, Alvarez to second.11–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 19–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–1
- 4Marte grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Nimmo scored, Alonso out at second, Martinez to third.9–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 28–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 4Martinez singled to center, Lindor scored, Nimmo to second.8–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 3Iglesias singled to left, Marte scored, Vientos to second.7–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 2Nimmo homered to left center (379 feet), Iglesias scored.6–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Alvarez homered to center (420 feet).4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 1Morel grounded into double play, third to second to first, Hoerner scored, Bellinger out at second, Suzuki to third.3–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Martinez homered to center (412 feet), Lindor scored and Nimmo scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML NYM +135 / CHC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- CHC -143
- NYM +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.4 – 4.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +19 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +39 Elo | CHC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 21–1611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–42 | 37–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 10–24 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 37–35 | 33–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–5 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.