New York Mets at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vientos homered to center (451 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Morel homered to center (420 feet), Happ scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Martinez grounded out to first, Bader scored, Nimmo to second, Lindor to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Nimmo homered to left center (379 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Lindor homered to left center (378 feet), Bader scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML NYM +105 / CHC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +4 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +34 Elo | CHC 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 22–1711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–43 | 38–39 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–25 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 38–36 | 34–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–6 CHC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.