Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer HowardPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Flores walked, Bailey scored, Ramos to second, Ahmed to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 44–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 9Slater hit sacrifice fly to center, Estrada scored, Ahmed to second, Bailey to third.4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Conforto hit sacrifice fly to left, Chapman scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Ahmed homered to left (385 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Chapman homered to left (410 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Swanson doubled to left, Bellinger scored, Happ to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 5Happ grounded into fielder's choice to second, Suzuki scored, Morel out at second, Bellinger to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Bellinger singled to right, Hoerner scored, Suzuki to second.2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Busch reached on infield single to shortstop, Bellinger scored, Happ to second, Morel to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 50%
- ML CHC -110 / SF -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- SF: Elo 50.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -100
- CHC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.3 – 3.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −4 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Erik Miller: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC 0 Elo | CHC 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3015–23 | Road vs home | 20–1713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–40 | 39–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 15–20 |
| Underdog | 28–14 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 34–43–1 | 43–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–2 SF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.