Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Matos homered to left center (375 feet).3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Suzuki homered to center (431 feet).3–3
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Amaya singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Villar homered to center (433 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Conforto homered to right center (411 feet), Bailey scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Happ scored, Morel to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 51%
- ML CHC -105 / SF -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- SF: Elo 51.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | 0 | CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Hayden Birdsong (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SF +11 Elo | SF 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 26th of 3015–25 | Road vs home | 22–1712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–41 | 40–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 16–21 |
| Underdog | 29–15 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 35–44–1 | 44–34–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–4 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.