Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Giants- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Happ homered to center (398 feet), Bellinger scored.5–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Matos reached on infield single to second, Soler scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Chapman scored on Imanaga wild pitch, Soler to third on wild pitch by Imanaga.3–2
- 6Chapman scored on Imanaga wild pitch, Soler to third on wild pitch by Imanaga.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Soler hit a ground rule double, Slater scored, Chapman to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Suzuki tripled to right, Bellinger scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Hoerner homered to left (364 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -115 / SF -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 50.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −4 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +6 Elo | CHC 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 26th of 3015–26 | Road vs home | 23–1711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–41 | 40–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | 30–15 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 35–45–1 | 44–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–5 SF in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.