Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Chourio homered to left (377 feet), Yelich scored, Frelick scored and Hoskins scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Swanson singled to left, Happ scored, Morel to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Suzuki homered to left (401 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML CHC +110 / MIL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −8 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +50 Elo | MIL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 3016–26 | Road vs home | 25–124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–41 | 46–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 31–15 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 36–45–1 | 45–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–11 MIL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.