Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Turang homered to right center (381 feet), Hoskins scored, Frelick scored and Chourio scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Frelick singled to center, Bauers scored, Hoskins to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Yelich homered to center (422 feet), Contreras scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Hoerner homered to left center (383 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 64%
- ML CHC +165 / MIL -195
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -175
- CHC +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +9 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +92 Elo | MIL 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 3017–27 | Road vs home | 26–134th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–42 | 47–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–26 | 20–23 |
| Underdog | 32–16 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 37–46–1 | 46–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 10–12 MIL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.