Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Drew ThorpePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Toglia homered to center (429 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pham singled to right, DeJong scored and Vaughn scored, Mendick to third.2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Lee grounded out to first, Jiménez scored, DeJong to second, Vaughn to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6DeJong singled to center, Robert Jr. scored, Vaughn to second, Jiménez to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Doyle homered to left (426 feet), Hilliard scored.2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Lopez singled to left, Vaughn scored, DeJong to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 57%
- ML COL +125 / CHW -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- CHW: Elo 51.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +1 | COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Drew Thorpe: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +13 Elo | CHW 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 5.029th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–29 | Road vs home | 14–2830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–40 | 39–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 36–35 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders | 43–34 | 36–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–1 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.