Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peña singled to center, Dubón scored.1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 8Doyle hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored, Cave to third.1–6
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 30–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 7Diaz singled to center, Bregman scored, Alvarez to third.0–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 7Bregman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Loperfido scored on throwing error by second baseman Rodgers, Altuve safe at second on error.0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Altuve grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Peña scored, Loperfido to second.0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 7Salazar hit sacrifice fly to center, Dubón scored, Peña to third.0–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 5Altuve singled to left, Salazar scored, Altuve to second.0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Diaz singled to right, Altuve scored, Alvarez to second.0–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML COL +165 / HOU -195
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -175
- COL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −12 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +126 Elo | HOU 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 3011–28 | Road vs home | 23–1914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–39 | 36–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 25–33 |
| Underdog | 36–34 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 43–33 | 29–44–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–6 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.