Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-6, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 14Toglia hit sacrifice fly to center, McMahon scored.5–4
- 14Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 14Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 14Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 13Robert Jr. singled to right, Pham scored.4–4
- 13Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 13Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 13Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 13Tovar singled to right, Rodgers scored.4–3
- 13Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 10Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to right, Lee scored.3–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 10Goodman hit sacrifice fly to center, Hilliard scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Vaughn walked, Julks scored, Pham to second, Sosa to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 42–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Vaughn homered to left (389 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Goodman hit sacrifice fly to right, Díaz scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2McMahon scored on a balk, Díaz to second on a balk.1–0
- 2McMahon scored on a balk, Díaz to second on a balk.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 66%
- ML COL +180 / CHW -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- CHW: Elo 55.5%, market 66.0%
- Fair odds
- CHW -194
- COL +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +25 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 1.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +39 Elo | CHW 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 66.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.029th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −1.930th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–31 | Road vs home | 16–2830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–42 | 41–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 6–0 |
| Underdog | 36–37 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders | 44–35 | 37–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–3 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.