Colorado Rockies at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Paul DeJongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa scored on Pint wild pitch, Pham to second on wild pitch by Pint.3–11
- 8Sosa scored on Pint wild pitch, Pham to second on wild pitch by Pint.3–11
- 8Lee homered to left center (384 feet), Vaughn scored and DeJong scored.3–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 8DeJong singled to right, Julks scored, Vaughn to second.3–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 8Vaughn singled to right, Robert Jr. scored, Julks to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6DeJong homered to left (407 feet), Vaughn scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Robert Jr. homered to center (470 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Sosa homered to right center (393 feet), Lopez scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Jones homered to right (363 feet), Rodgers scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Rodgers homered to left (368 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 51%
- ML COL -115 / CHW -105
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- COL: Elo 51.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | 0 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +7 Elo | COL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 5.029th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 29th of 3011–30 | Road vs home | 15–2830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–41 | 40–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 5–0 |
| Underdog | 36–36 | 35–44 |
| Overs–unders | 43–35 | 36–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–2 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.