Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting2-4
- Dakota HudsonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Mitchell walked, Turang scored, Yelich to second, Contreras to third.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 43–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Bauers singled to right, Frelick scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Yelich homered to right (446 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 61%
- ML MIL -175 / COL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -159
- COL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 6.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −5 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +107 Elo | MIL 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 3024–22 | Road vs home | 17–2327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–36 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–24 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 28–12 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders | 48–37 | 46–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–5 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.