Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5
- Dallas KeuchelPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hoskins hit by pitch, Turang scored, Mitchell to second, Yelich to third.4–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 13–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Adames hit sacrifice fly to center, Monasterio scored, Yelich to second, Turang to third.3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Doyle doubled to center, McMahon scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Turang doubled to center, Chourio scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Toglia hit sacrifice fly to left, Stallings scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Doyle homered to left (368 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Frelick singled to left, Adames scored, Mitchell to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML MIL -115 / COL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 5.8 – 5.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −16 | MIL: Dallas Keuchel: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +113 Elo | MIL 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 17–2227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–36 | 39–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–24 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 27–12 | 38–37 |
| Overs–unders | 48–36 | 46–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–5 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.