Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting3-3, 3 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8T. Hernández doubled to left, Smith scored, Freeman to third.5–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Freeman singled to center, Taylor scored and Vargas scored, Smith to third.5–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 7Smith homered to left (394 feet).5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 4Vargas homered to left (360 feet), Pages scored.5–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Hoskins homered to center (391 feet), Contreras scored, Adames scored and Mitchell scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Adames singled to right, Turang scored, Contreras to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Smith homered to left center (410 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Smith homered to right center (391 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML MIL +175 / LAD -210
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -186
- MIL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.1 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +5 | MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +45 Elo | LAD 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3025–23 | Road vs home | 26–178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–37 | 42–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–25 | 40–41 |
| Underdog | 28–12 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 48–39 | 45–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–5 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.