Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Cristian MenaPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker homered to left center (398 feet), Carroll scored and Marte scored.12–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 39–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–4
- 8Suárez doubled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored.9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Gurriel Jr. homered to left (431 feet), Walker scored.8–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 5Perdomo sacrificed to first, McCarthy scored, Suárez to second.6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul5–4
- 4Walker homered to left (378 feet).5–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 3Moreno homered to center (388 feet), Suárez scored.4–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Suárez doubled to left, McCarthy scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 1T. Hernández homered to left center (389 feet).1–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML ARI +175 / LAD -210
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -186
- ARI +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +8 | ARI: Cristian Mena (no track record yet) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +91 Elo | LAD 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.42nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3019–23 | Road vs home | 26–157th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–43 | 42–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 40–39 |
| Underdog | 25–21 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 43–41–1 | 43–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–12 LAD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.