Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perdomo doubled to left, Suárez scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Walker singled to left, Marte scored.1–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 7Alexander singled to left, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored, Alexander out stretching at second, Marte to second.1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Gelof homered to right center (381 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Walker singled to left, Marte scored, Pederson to second.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 66%
- ML OAK +180 / ARI -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 62.9%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -191
- OAK +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +92 Elo | ARI 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 3012–32 | Road vs home | 21–2117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–44 | 40–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | 37–38 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 39–45 | 42–40–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–3 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.