Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-3, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Walker scored.8–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 6Marte scored on Staumont wild pitch, Walker to third on wild pitch by Staumont.8–2
- 6Marte scored on Staumont wild pitch, Walker to third on wild pitch by Staumont.8–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 5Castro homered to left (428 feet), Miranda scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Gurriel Jr. tripled to left, Pederson scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Correa doubled to center, Larnach scored.6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Larnach doubled to right, Castro scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Buxton hit sacrifice fly to center, Correa scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Miranda doubled to left, Buxton scored, Correa scored and Santana scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -120 / ARI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +12 Elo | MIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–20 | Road vs home | 20–1816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–44 | 39–40 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–32 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders | 37–42 | 39–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.