Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Castellanos homered to left (382 feet).5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 8Perdomo singled to right, Alexander scored, Perdomo safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Castellanos.5–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Turner reached on infield single to second, Dahl scored, Schwarber to second, Marchán to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 3Turner homered to left center (429 feet), Schwarber scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pederson homered to center (404 feet).4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Moreno homered to center (433 feet), Carroll scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Gurriel Jr. homered to left (411 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML ARI +115 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.6%, market 56.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -127
- ARI +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −21 | ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +60 Elo | PHI 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3018–20 | Road vs home | 29–101st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–38 | 39–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 32–28 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 37–37–1 | 32–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–7 PHI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.
- Oct 24ARI 4 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Oct 23ARI 5 @ PHI 1PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Miss
- Oct 21PHI 6 @ ARI 1PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 20PHI 5 @ ARI 6PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Hit
- Oct 19PHI 1 @ ARI 2PlayoffsPicked ARI 50%Hit
- Oct 17ARI 0 @ PHI 10PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Hit
- Oct 16ARI 3 @ PHI 5PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Hit
- Jun 15PHI 5 @ ARI 4Picked ARI 54%Miss