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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast

FinalRoku

Away

Diamondbacks

38-40

1–4

at

Home

Phillies

51-26

ARI 32%PHI 68%

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Citizens Bank Park · Roku

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.

PHI75%50%75%ARIStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Diamondbacks
  • Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 RBI
  • Slade CecconiPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Phillies
  • David DahlBatting2-4, 2 RBI
  • Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Marte singled to center, Perdomo scored.1–4
  • 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
  • 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
  • 7Stott singled to left, Harper scored, Bohm to second.0–4
  • 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
  • 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
  • 7Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
  • 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
  • 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
  • 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
  • 6Dahl singled to right, Stott scored and Marsh scored.0–3
  • 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
  • 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
  • 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
  • 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
  • 2Castellanos singled to left, Bohm scored.0–1
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Phillies 68%

SolidHit
ARI 32%PHI 68%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.

Market
PHI 68%
ML ARI +200 / PHI -250
Pre-line forecast
PHI 63%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI 60%
Ratings vs. market
−8.1 pts
PHI: Elo 60.0%, market 68.2%
Fair odds
PHI -214
ARI +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ARI 3.9 – 5.6 PHI
Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorARIPHIWhy
Team rating14991562Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+6−4ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsPHI +71 EloPHI 60.0%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 63.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 62.8%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastPHI 68.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies compared, with each team's league rank
ARIStatPHI
7th of 304.8Runs scored5.12nd of 30
23rd of 304.8Runs allowed3.61st of 30
15th of 300.0Margin+1.52nd of 30
7th of 306–4Last 104–620th of 30
14th of 3019–21Road vs home30–112nd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DiamondbacksPhillies
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonARIPHI
Run line38–3940–36
Last 106–43–7
Favorite15–2133–29
Underdog23–187–7
Overs–unders38–38–133–42–1
Overs–unders, last 105–56–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ARI 8–8 PHI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.