Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Tucker BarnhartBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dahl homered to right (369 feet), Bohm scored.1–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–12
- 6Castellanos singled to left, Schwarber scored and Turner scored, Bohm to third.1–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 5Castellanos homered to left (428 feet), Harper scored.1–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5Barnhart singled to right, Walker scored, McCarthy to third.1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Schwarber doubled to left, Sosa scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Bohm homered to center (417 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Harper homered to right center (427 feet), Schwarber scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to right, Turner scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Harper singled to center, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 70%
- ML ARI +220 / PHI -275
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.4%, market 70.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -235
- ARI +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 5.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +4 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +88 Elo | PHI 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 3019–20 | Road vs home | 29–112nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–38 | 39–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 32–29 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 37–38–1 | 32–42–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 8–7 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.
- Jun 21ARI 5 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Oct 24ARI 4 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Oct 23ARI 5 @ PHI 1PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Miss
- Oct 21PHI 6 @ ARI 1PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Miss
- Oct 20PHI 5 @ ARI 6PlayoffsPicked ARI 51%Hit
- Oct 19PHI 1 @ ARI 2PlayoffsPicked ARI 50%Hit
- Oct 17ARI 0 @ PHI 10PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Hit
- Oct 16ARI 3 @ PHI 5PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Hit