Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marte reached on infield single to second, Perdomo scored, Carroll to second.4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Jeffers homered to left (367 feet), Santana scored and Buxton scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Buxton homered to left center (405 feet).1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Barnhart singled to center, Suárez scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Suárez tripled to center, McCarthy scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Marte homered to right (379 feet), Carroll scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML MIN -130 / ARI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 3.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +11 Elo | MIN 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 10th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 19–1815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–43 | 38–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–31 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders | 36–42 | 38–39–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–0 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.