Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 14 K
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting2-4
- Hogan HarrisPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Farmer grounded into fielder's choice to second, Castro scored, Buxton out at third.3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7Buxton doubled to center, Santana scored, Castro to third.2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Buxton homered to left center (432 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 61%
- ML MIN -175 / OAK +150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.4%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -159
- OAK +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 3.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −12 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +81 Elo | MIN 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 18–2225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–43 | 39–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 36–33 |
| Overs–unders | 36–41 | 37–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–2 OAK in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.