Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Manuel MargotBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching9.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Correa doubled to left, Margot scored.10–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 29–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 3Miranda doubled to left, Lewis scored.9–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 2Soderstrom homered to center (419 feet).8–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 2Farmer reached on infield single to second, Jeffers scored, Castro to second, Buxton to third.8–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 2Buxton doubled to left, Miranda scored, Jeffers to third.7–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 2Miranda doubled to center, Lewis scored and Correa scored.6–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 2Margot homered to left center (419 feet), Castro scored and Farmer scored.4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Bleday homered to right (399 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Jeffers hit by pitch, Margot scored, Santana to second, Correa to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML MIN -185 / OAK +155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -166
- OAK +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 3.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +61 Elo | MIN 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 13th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 18–2123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–43 | 39–38 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–31 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 36–32 |
| Overs–unders | 35–41 | 36–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 9–2 OAK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.